COMMENTS

- - 2009

December 15, 2009: The Return of Feudal Theocracy

As the twenty first century’s first decade comes to an end our government holds titular control of the financial system via implicit guarantees of support. However, with fiat money, debt and the thus derived necessity for continual expansion, the economy cannot be allowed to flinch. Constructive control flows, thereby, in the opposite direction.

Yes, the people are in nominal, civic control of government via two major political parties. However, with one party rule in congress, with service to self overriding public service (When senators from Louisiana and Nebraska pimp their votes for state gain does that not make their constituents whores?), with image based, surrogate candidates dredged from the inexperienced and the incompetent, with biblical authority promoted as the fount of modern wisdom, indeed knowledge, are the freedom and will of an intelligent, fact-based populace fairly represented? Sophist argument, misapplied images, extremist sound bites, the wooing of religious ideologues and the outright manipulation of facts to wring out that critical marginal measure of majority or, its legislative equivalent, blockade do not the foundation of a vibrant capitalistic democracy make.

In short, when ignorance, image, authority and financial dominance become the virtues of a weakened democracy can resurrection of feudal theocracy be far behind? Goldman Sachs is busy “doing God’s work” and the vast majority serve an unsustainable overproduction yet corresponding compelled overconsumption that mocks the concept of economic freedom.

October 30, 2009 : “Facts are stubborn things...” (John Adams).

The administration’s oft noted “dithering on Afghanistan” is understandable. Some problems have no easy solution. Successful democratization, ala our world view, of that state will be elusive. Our attempts at forceful regime change represent yet again a folly of painful and historically discredited incremental war which seems to willfully ignore the effective limits on the application of our power. Several societies have tried and, despite their at least equal measures of deployable force as well as far less restraint, failed to impose their will there. Perhaps we should, like a smart money poker player, now make a deliberate nonemotional assessment and seek the alternative advantage of rational failure.

Before reacting with horror, consider. While establishing democracy [sic] by force in Iraq may be overreaching aspiration, it is hopeless delusion in Afghanistan. Political theory and historical precedent aside, the critical present flaw is that the Taliban is metastatic. It is diffuse, wide spread, entrenched and. more's the pity, welcomed. With that impediment to liberal democracy thus dramatically immune to effective focal treatment by an outside agent let, therefore, the Afghanis self-medicate.

If with our assurance of economic and social support their body politic can move towards the modern state that we prefer, bully. However, if their will and their treasure and their young lives are insufficient to the task, then the Taliban, Al Qaeda, drug lords, and/or Muslim militant contingents will indeed take over. Such may or may not evolve into the infectious malignant society that we fear. But if it does and we suffer for it, then our course will be clear, our power justifiably unconstricted. Whatever ruling coalition does take form will necessarily establish a locus of administration which, should justification dictate, then can be precisely targeted. Would that we could similarly concentrate biological cancers.

September 1, 2009: Financial physics

A useful analog of the turmoil of the “naughties.” can be found perhaps in basic physics.

In this decade we marveled at the financial wizardry of assigning real assets such that debt may be orchestrated into an asset via the creation of a like amount of complimentary insurance on that debt. Now consider modern atomic theory. With the addition of creative energy the experimental physicist can create from absolutely nothing a particle of matter paired with its equal quantity of antimatter. The two real entities will have linked but stable existences as long as they remain separated. Bring them together, that is, allow each to become ensnared with the other, and they are mutually destroyed, energetically reverting back to the nothingness from which they came.

Likewise our financial alchemists found a way, via injection of starter capital, to create two disproportionately vast and tradeable “assets” from nothing. Worse, as the financial universe became rife with such profitable devices, it became increasingly unlikely that the two opposites would not remain forever apart. It is unsurprising, some would claim rather it was totally predictable that there would one day be dramatic mutual destruction, a reversal of the underlying creative steps and consequent destruction of the assets from which the illusion was created. It was all just a matter of misunderstood probability.

July 4, 2009: Palin for President (Pretty Polly) Je prédis

So now the hard right wing of the Republican party abets a minor politician from the Great North to run for national office. Charisma and undeniable homespun appear to her key qualifications. Is it hopelessly old fashioned to claim that the projection of a candidate to the high office of President should be mindful of accomplishments, actual as well as potential, and ability, leadership as well as intellectual? Perhaps. But equally
historical are the machinations of those who would assume control but, lacking the direct means to do so, cleverly create a surrogate. A Judas goat is arguably preferable to a coup d’état.

Judging from its commentaries, the faith based right wing Republican block will do whatever it takes to remake our country according to, what it claims to be, our Christian roots[sic]. How vain and insular is unshakeable belief in a singular version of Truth, of the way to form a better society. How heavily oppressive is the fundamentalist, “End Justifies the Means” ethic. How similar is their slyly couched, “born again” proposal of authoritarian governance to other fundamentalist cults, which, in international contexts, we have already judged regressive and corrupt. Such an antitheses to democracy can yield only one result, I fear, a degraded and diminished free people. As frightening as the prospect appears, the accumulation of national leadership mistakes since the 1960's, the peak of our middle class prosperity, may have made unavoidable a government by edict and personality. We have seen this before. However, it will be new for us, something we avoided last century.

So Je prédis: Ms. Palin will win the nomination for 2012. The Republican Party, as we have known it for much of the twentieth century, is in disarray. Its conservative theocratic wing has maneuvered long and hard for just that opportunity. To their expressed dismay and, however, suppressed smiles, she will lose the election. They already recognize that it likely will take more than one term for Obama’s mistakes to
bear sufficient bitter fruit. Despite his policy failings, Obama will likely present too strong an interim record to be denied a second term. The subsequent presidential cycle, leading to the election of 2016 is their true target. Our financial crisis will have moderated due to a patchwork of policy, political compromise, stimulus and luck. Nonetheless, after eight years of Obama, the electorate, having experienced repetitious crises and their attendant, fiscally unavoidable, near socialist, governmental intrusions, will have soured on more of the same. The voters will clamor for another way. The faith based cadre will provide it. Despite evident lacks that will not have been addressed, after eight years of practice Ms. Palin by then shall have become adept at parroting the right words at the right time. She will win in 2016.

In 2017-19, with single minded Republican mismanagement based on their interpretation of the Will of God, we will be well on the road to a total collapse of the US Stock and Treasury markets, as well as the dollar. Subsequent sad years will reprise the First Great Depression. This time the US will suffer damage and discredit, its democratic roots wound in copper. Gone will be faith in independent thought and in the
pragmatics of discourse. As we saw repeated many times last century, the strong and the willful will be preferred over the reasoned, precisely following the far right’s agenda.

Partisan politics is not the issue here. The sad surge of Tea Party nitwits is symptom not disease. Accidents of history have simply made the Republicans the upcoming primary agents of change. The Democratic party is equally guilty. Both cater to financial interests that are suffused with greed, that view as anathema anyone not of their self- esteemed class. Both have made of government a study in self-serving delay and
procrastination. The forces compelling the scenario I have outlined are the same that have collapsed powerful societies in the past: hubris, the misapplication of financial resources, flagrant over consumption and the seductive promises of authority arisen from crisis. We will hate ourselves after the journey but yes, Professor Hayek, we are indeed well on the road to a revised medieval manorial system and serfdom. Happy
Independence Day, folks. Enjoy it while you can.

January 5, 2009: I Take it Back

In my comment of November 11, 2008 (“Hell no; no more dough”) I argued that while bailouts are anathema, we should consider helping basic industries such as the auto industry.

Wrong! Mea culpa.

The auto industry got to its current dire state through its own mistakes. We are well down the slippery slope of nationalizing everything and perhaps it is too late to halt the trend.. But there is such a thing as cutting your losses, taking it on the chin and saying “No! Enough”

While bailouts will help corporate bondholders and perhaps even some with equity stakes, the cost will be borne by the federal taxpayer. And the largest portion of the burden will fall on the middle class. Isn’t it bad enough that state and local taxes soon will be raised to cover shortfalls due to declining business levels and falling real estate valuations?

Under the cover of crisis, government policy is being framed so as to further restrict the financial mobility of the consumer-serf.